Document role: Delta model only. Quantifies the difference between State A (current system, without Carbotura) and State B (with Carbotura's 30-year CSA). No re-diagnosis. No independent derivation of deployment sizes or fees. Rol del documento: Solo modelo delta. Cuantifica la diferencia entre Estado A y Estado B. Sin rediagnóstico.
- Full Whole-of-Disposal Cost is estimated at $145 per ton on a forward-curve basis. Actual territorial aggregate is confirmable through Term Sheet phase verification data exchange within 90 days of commercial decision.El FWDC se estima en $145/ton sobre base de curva futura. Confirmable mediante intercambio de datos del Estudio dentro de 90 días.
- Site candidate designation is provisional at Ponce Industrial Corridor (FTZ #163), pending PRIDCO parcel confirmation.La designación de sitio es provisional en Corredor Industrial Ponce (FTZ #163), pendiente confirmación PRIDCO.
- Operator principal names for current DRNA, DDEC, and PRIFA leadership are subject to administration verification at CSA execution.Nombres principales DRNA, DDEC, PRIFA sujetos a verificación en ejecución CSA.
- Deployment schedule reflects Carbotura standard parameters. Hurricane-season timing contingency is structurally included.Cronograma refleja parámetros estándar. Contingencia de huracanes incluida estructuralmente.
- Commonwealth of Puerto Rico sovereign credit position is material to project financial structure; five-layer credit enhancement architecture is integral to financial close.La posición crediticia soberana del ELA es material; arquitectura de cinco capas es integral al cierre financiero.
All classifications are structurally robust — none blocks the delta model that follows.Todas las clasificaciones son estructuralmente robustas — ninguna bloquea el modelo delta.
§1 — Introduction and Decision Summary§1 — Introducción y Resumen
§1.1 — What This Report Measures§1.1 — Qué Mide
This report quantifies the fiscal, economic, and structural difference between two states:Este informe cuantifica la diferencia fiscal, económica y estructural entre dos estados:
State A — Without Carbotura. The Commonwealth continues operating through its current 23-landfill infrastructure, absorbing rising FWDC, meeting EPA Consent Order closure obligations, and managing the 2028–2030 capacity exhaustion window with mitigation-only options. Baseline from the Waste Study.Estado A — Sin Carbotura. El ELA continúa operando con su infraestructura actual de 23 vertederos, absorbiendo FWDC creciente, cumpliendo con obligaciones de cierre EPA, y gestionando la ventana 2028–2030 con opciones solo de mitigación. Base del Estudio.
State B — With Carbotura. A 30-year CSA between the Commonwealth (via DDEC) and the Carbotura SPV diverts 400 to 2,000 TPD (phased) into manufactured product streams under Act 60 Chapter 6 manufacturing designation. Baseline from the Proposal.Estado B — Con Carbotura. Un CSA de 30 años entre el ELA (vía DDEC) y el SPV desvía 400–2,000 TPD (por fases) a productos manufacturados bajo designación Cap. 6 Ley 60. Base de la Propuesta.
§1.2 — Decision Summary Table§1.2 — Tabla de Resumen
| ParameterParámetro | State A | State B | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Territory MSW annual cost (Phase Expanded scope)Costo anual RSM territorial | ~$116.8M Y5 | $96.7M TMC Y5 | −$20.1M gross TMC advantageventaja TMC bruta |
| Circular Royalty™ Y2 receiptRecibo Regalía Y2 | $0 | $21.02M | +$21.02M |
| Circular Royalty™ Y5+ (Phase Expanded)Regalía Y5+ (Fase Expandida) | $0 | ~$116.0M | +$116.0M |
| Capital — CommonwealthCapital — ELA | N/A | $0 | No territorial capexSin capex territorial |
| Capital — Carbotura SPVCapital — SPV | $1,167.5M | Fully SPV balance sheetCompletamente balance SPV | |
| 30-yr nominal cumulative fiscal improvementMejora fiscal acumulada 30 años | ~$5.7–6.0B | ||
| Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT)Transición del Predicado Regulatorio (RPT) MATERIAL | Not applicableNo aplicable | Precondition for ACM AND Act 60 Ch. 6 decreePrecondición ACM Y decreto Cap. 6 | Single decision unlocks both regimesUna decisión desbloquea ambos regímenes |
| Data gapsBrechas de datos | See §8.5Ver §8.5 | FWDC basis; site confirmationBase FWDC; sitio | |
| Procurement deadlineFecha límite adquisición | Q3 2026 | 24 months ahead of Phase Initial COD24 meses antes COD Fase Inicial | |
| Cost of 6-month delayCosto retraso 6 meses | Compounded FWDC + capacity premiumFWDC compuesto + prima capacidad | Compresses margin vs. capacity wallComprime margen vs. muro | Material — forces WTE revival or federal diversionMaterial — fuerza WTE o desvío federal |
§1.3 — Fiscal vs. Regional Economic Separation§1.3 — Separación Fiscal vs. Regional
Required statement: Territorial fiscal effects (Avoided Disposal Cost, Beneficiation Fee Paid, Circular Royalty™ Received) and regional economic effects (direct and indirect employment, local procurement, municipal tax base) are distinct categories. They must not be aggregated as a single "total benefit" figure. Fiscal effects appear on Commonwealth accounts. Regional economic effects appear in GDP / employment statistics and do not transfer to Commonwealth treasury.Declaración requerida: Efectos fiscales territoriales y efectos económicos regionales son categorías distintas. No deben agregarse como "beneficio total". Efectos fiscales aparecen en cuentas del ELA. Efectos regionales aparecen en PIB / empleo y no se transfieren a tesorería.
§2 — State A Baseline§2 — Base Estado A
Source: Waste Study. Locked Registry values. No new diagnosis.Fuente: Estudio. Valores del Registro. Sin nuevo diagnóstico.
§2.1 — Feedstock Volume and Disposition§2.1 — Volumen y Disposición
| CategoryCategoría | TPD | TPY | Current DispositionDisposición Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total territorial MSW generationGeneración territorial | ~10,000 | ~3,700,000 | 23 active landfills (11 compliant)vertederos activos (11 conformes) |
| Addressable by ACM (terminal)Abordable por ACM | 2,000 | 730,000 | Continues to landfill under State AVertedero bajo Estado A |
| Conditional-access streamsAcceso condicional | ~3,500 | ~1,277,500 | Landfill under State AVertedero |
| Out-of-scope streamsFuera de alcance | ~4,500 | ~1,642,500 | Landfill or private processingVertedero o procesamiento privado |
| Recycling rate (actual)Tasa reciclaje (actual) | ~520,000 | Recycling marketsMercados reciclaje |
§2.2 — State A Cost Structure§2.2 — Estructura de Costo
| ComponentComponente | $/ton | Annual Territory CostCosto Anual |
|---|---|---|
| CollectionRecolección | $45 | $164.3M |
| Transport (post-NE closures)Transporte (post-cierres NE) | $20 | $73.0M |
| Compliant tipping forward curveTarifa conforme curva futura | $32 | $116.8M |
| EPA closure provisionProvisión cierre EPA | $10 | $36.5M |
| 30-yr post-closure careCuidado post-cierre | $7 | $25.6M |
| Hidden municipal overheadSobrecarga municipal oculta | $18 | $65.7M |
| Capacity-crisis premiumPrima crisis capacidad | $13 | $47.4M |
| FWDC ESTIMATED | $145 | ~$529.3M |
Resource classification (UN Framework Classification for Resources — Anthropogenic category): territorial waste stream is Inferred Feedstock Resource (E3 · F3 · G3); Proven Reserve status applies to contracted volumes.Clasificación (Marco ONU — Antropogénicos): flujo territorial es Recurso Inferido (E3 · F3 · G3); Reserva Comprobada aplica a volúmenes contratados.
§2.3 — State A Cost Trajectory§2.3 — Trayectoria Estado A
Three mechanisms drive rising costs:
- Compliance-driven pricing. EPA Consent Orders concentrate remaining flows into 11 compliant landfills, which price in closure provisions and scarcity. Forward curve concave upward.
- Transport cost cascade. NE landfills substantially closed. Feedstock transit to SW Peñuelas Valley adds transport cost to every ton; effect compounds annually.
- Capacity-crisis forward curve premium. As the FEMA/EPA 2028–2030 exhaustion window approaches, remaining operators command scarcity pricing. Grows nonlinearly in the 24 months before the capacity wall.
Tres mecanismos impulsan costos crecientes:
- Precios por cumplimiento. Órdenes EPA concentran flujos en 11 vertederos conformes. Curva cóncava ascendente.
- Cascada de transporte. Vertederos NE cerrados. Tránsito a Valle Peñuelas SW agrega costo; efecto compuesto.
- Prima crisis de capacidad. Al aproximarse 2028–2030, operadores cobran por escasez. Crecimiento no-lineal.
§2.4 — Environmental and Structural Position§2.4 — Posición Ambiental
- Groundwater contamination. Multiple Superfund sites (Vega Baja NPL · Battery Recycling Arecibo · GE Wiring Devices Juana Díaz) document existing aquifer impact.Contaminación subterránea. Múltiples Superfund documentan impacto acuífero.
- Coastal vulnerability. Every landfill within 20 km of coastline. Marine pollution pathway is structural.Vulnerabilidad costera. Todo vertedero dentro de 20 km de costa.
- Methane emissions. Organic-rich (35%) stream produces elevated methane; estimated ~1.3M TCO2e/yr.Emisiones metano. Flujo 35% orgánicos produce metano elevado; ~1.3M TCO2e/año.
- No-fallback status. State A has no engineered alternative. DRNA 2026 reconsideration of WTE reflects active search without contracted solution.Sin alternativa. Estado A sin alternativa ingenieril. DRNA 2026 refleja búsqueda activa sin solución contratada.
§3 — State B Deployment Baseline§3 — Despliegue Estado B
Source: Proposal EIR Input Block only. No independent re-derivation.Fuente: solo Bloque EIR de Propuesta.
§3.2 — Deployment Configuration§3.2 — Configuración
| Phase Initial | 400 TPD (4 × 100 TPD modules) |
| Phase Medium | 1,000 TPD (10 modules total; +6) |
| Phase Expanded | 2,000 TPD (20 modules total; +10) |
| Module math verificationVerificación aritmética | 4 + 6 = 10 ✓ · 10 + 10 = 20 ✓ · 20 × 100 = 2,000 ✓ |
| Annual throughput Phase ExpandedRendimiento anual | 730,000 TPY |
| Total CapEx | $247.5M + $345.0M + $575.0M = $1,167.5M |
| Site | Ponce Industrial Corridor (FTZ #163) PROVISIONAL |
| Facility classificationClasificación | NAICS 325180, 325998, 327992, 331110, 331314, 331492 MATERIAL |
§3.3 — Economic Terms§3.3 — Términos Económicos
| Beneficiation Fee base | $120/ton (Year 1) |
| TMC escalator | 2.5%/yr compoundingcompuesto |
| Royalty base | 120% of Y1 TMCdel TMC Y1 = $144/ton (Y2) |
| Royalty escalator | +1 pp/yr |
| Royalty lag | 13 monthsmeses |
| CSA term | 30 yearsaños |
| Model | Build-Own-Operate (BOO) |
| CounterpartyContraparte | Commonwealth of Puerto Rico via DDEC |
§3.4 — Residual Obligations§3.4 — Obligaciones Residuales
In State B, the Commonwealth retains responsibility for:
- Residual MSW (~8,000 TPD) continues to require conventional disposal management
- Legacy landfill closure obligations under existing EPA Consent Orders
- Superfund site remediation (Vega Baja, Arecibo, Juana Díaz, Jobos)
- Commonwealth regulatory authority via DRNA over the broader territorial solid waste system
The CSA diverts 20% of the territorial waste stream. It does not replace the full system.
En el Estado B, el ELA retiene responsabilidad por:
- RSM residual (~8,000 TPD) continúa requiriendo manejo convencional
- Obligaciones de cierre de vertederos bajo Órdenes EPA existentes
- Remediación Superfund (Vega Baja, Arecibo, Juana Díaz, Jobos)
- Autoridad regulatoria del ELA vía DRNA
El CSA desvía 20% del flujo territorial. No reemplaza el sistema completo.
§3.5 — Timeline Anchoring§3.5 — Anclaje Cronograma
T0 = Q3 2026 (commercial decision). Feasibility T0+3mo. Construction T0+6mo. Phase Initial COD = T0+24mo = Q1 2029. First Circular Royalty™ = T0+37mo = Q2 2030. Phase Expanded = T0+60mo = Q3 2031.T0 = Q3 2026. Factibilidad T0+3m. Construcción T0+6m. COD Fase Inicial = T0+24m = Q1 2029. Primera Regalía = T0+37m = Q2 2030. Fase Expandida = T0+60m = Q3 2031.
§3.6 — Phase Delta Map§3.6 — Mapa Delta de Fase
Map requires a Google Maps API key. Set GOOGLE_MAPS_API_KEY in config.js. Delta panel to the right is fully functional without the map.El mapa requiere clave API de Google Maps. Configure GOOGLE_MAPS_API_KEY en config.js. Panel delta funcional sin mapa.
§4 — Delta Analysis§4 — Análisis Delta
§4.1 — Three Delta Components§4.1 — Tres Componentes
- Gross cost displacement.Desplazamiento bruto. Each ton diverted from landfill avoids the State A FWDC. Positive all years; grows with escalation.Cada ton desviada evita FWDC del Estado A. Positivo todos los años.
- Circular Royalty™ cash flow.Flujo de caja Regalía. SPV pays Royalty to Commonwealth beginning Month 13. Zero Y1; ramps Y2; steady-state Y3+.SPV paga Regalía desde Mes 13. Cero Y1; rampa Y2; estable Y3+.
- Residual obligation.Obligación residual. Commonwealth pays Beneficiation Fee on ACM-processed tonnes. Offsets displacement but lower by design.ELA paga Tarifa TMC. Compensa desplazamiento pero es menor por diseño.
§4.1 — Phase-by-Phase Comparative Table§4.1 — Tabla Comparativa
| Phase / YearFase / Año | ACM Vol | State A costcosto | TMC | RoyaltyRegalía |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Y1 | 146,000 | $21.17M | $17.52M | $0 (pre-royalty) |
| Initial Y2 | 146,000 | $21.70M | $17.96M | $21.02M |
| Medium Y4 | 365,000 | $57.00M | $47.17M | $54.32M |
| Expanded Y5 | 730,000 | $116.84M | $96.70M | $116.03M |
| Expanded Y10 | 730,000 | $132.18M | $109.41M | $136.62M |
| Expanded Y20 | 730,000 | $169.22M | $140.04M | $188.54M |
| Expanded Y30 | 730,000 | $216.65M | $179.27M | $258.84M |
Year 1 and post-Month 13 periods have materially different fiscal characteristics. They must not be combined.
Year 1 (Months 1–12) represents the pre-royalty period. The Commonwealth pays the Beneficiation Fee; Circular Royalty™ has not yet commenced. Gross fiscal improvement in this period is driven solely by avoided disposal cost (approximately $25/ton before Royalty initiation).
From Month 13 onward, Circular Royalty™ payments from the SPV to the Commonwealth begin on a rolling monthly basis, ramping over Year 2 to full run-rate. From Year 3 onward (steady state), the Circular Royalty™ exceeds the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis by design.
Puerto Rico-specific amplification:
Los períodos Año 1 y post-Mes 13 tienen características fiscales materialmente diferentes. No deben combinarse.
El Año 1 (Meses 1–12) representa el período pre-regalía. El ELA paga la Tarifa TMC; la Regalía Circular aún no ha comenzado. La mejora fiscal bruta en este período se impulsa solo por el costo de disposición evitado (~$25/ton antes del inicio).
Desde el Mes 13, los pagos de Regalía Circular del SPV al ELA comienzan mensualmente rotando, alcanzando tasa completa durante el Año 2. Desde el Año 3 (estado estable), la Regalía excede la Tarifa TMC por tonelada por diseño.
Amplificación específica de PR: debido al ahorro de paso $20/ton de la pila Cap. 6 + FTZ #163 + QOZ, la posición en estado estable es materialmente más amplia.
CANONICAL CIRCULAR ROYALTY STATEMENTSDECLARACIONES CANÓNICAS DE LA REGALÍA CIRCULAR
Gross cost displacement and Circular Royalty™ cash flow are quantified separately.El desplazamiento bruto de costo se cuantifica por separado del flujo de caja de Regalía Circular. La posición fiscal neta completa refleja ambos.
At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis.En estado estable, la Regalía Circular está diseñada para exceder la Tarifa TMC por tonelada.
Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis.Los pagos de Regalía Circular comienzan 13 meses después de los pagos TMC correspondientes y alcanzan tasa completa de manera rotativa.
§4.4 — 30-year Gross Cost Displacement§4.4 — Desplazamiento Bruto 30 años
| Year | FWDC | TMC | Per-Ton Disp.Desp./ton | Vol (TPY) | $M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $145.00 | $120.00 | $25.00 | 146,000 | $3.65M |
| 2 | $148.63 | $123.00 | $25.63 | 146,000 | $3.74M |
| 3 | $152.34 | $126.08 | $26.26 | 255,500 | $6.71M |
| 5 | $160.05 | $132.46 | $27.59 | 730,000 | $20.14M |
| 10 | $181.07 | $149.87 | $31.20 | 730,000 | $22.77M |
| 20 | $231.81 | $191.84 | $39.97 | 730,000 | $29.18M |
| 30 | $296.78 | $245.57 | $51.21 | 730,000 | $37.38M |
| 30-yr cumulative nominalAcumulado 30 años | ~$750M | ||||
§4.5 — 30-year Circular Royalty™§4.5 — Regalía Circular 30 años
| Year | TMC (prior) (prev) | RateTasa | RoyaltyRegalía | Vol | $M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | $0.00 | 146,000 | $0 | |
| 2 | $120.00 | 120% | $144.00 | 146,000 | $21.02M |
| 3 | $123.00 | 121% | $148.83 | 255,500 | $38.03M |
| 5 | $129.23 | 123% | $158.95 | 730,000 | $116.03M |
| 10 | $146.21 | 128% | $187.15 | 730,000 | $136.62M |
| 20 | $187.16 | 138% | $258.28 | 730,000 | $188.54M |
| 30 | $239.58 | 148% | $354.58 | 730,000 | $258.84M |
| 30-yr cumulative Royalty nominalRegalía acumulada | ~$5.24B | ||||
Royalty figures are amounts received. The royalty is paid 13 months in arrears, so the figure shown for a year is earned on the previous year’s delivered tonnage.Las cifras de regalías son importes recibidos. La regalía se paga con 13 meses de diferimiento, por lo que la cifra mostrada para un año se genera sobre el tonelaje entregado el año anterior.
§4.6 — Three-Item Gross Fiscal Chart§4.6 — Gráfica Fiscal Bruta
§5 — System-Level Impact§5 — Impacto Sistema
§5.1 — Employment Delta§5.1 — Delta Empleo
Regional economic effects — not territorial fiscal receipts. These do not transfer to Commonwealth treasury.Efectos regionales — no ingresos fiscales territoriales.
| Phase | Direct FTE | Indirect (2.5×) | Total | Regional impactImpacto regional |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial | 32 | 80 | 112 | ~$15M |
| Medium | 80 | 200 | 280 | ~$37M |
| Expanded | 145 | 360 | 505 | ~$65M |
§5.2 — Environmental Delta§5.2 — Delta Ambiental
All figures expressed as designed-performance targets.Cifras como metas de desempeño diseñado.
| Metric | State A | State B (Phase Expanded) | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Landfill diversionDesviación | 0% | 20% (730,000 TPY) | +20% |
| Carbon impact (designed)Carbono (diseño) | Baseline landfill lossesPérdidas base | ~2.4M TCO2e/yr avoidedevitado | +2.4M TCO2e/yr |
| Water recoveryRecuperación agua | 0 | ~480,000 GPD | +480,000 GPD |
| Scope 2 | Grid-dependentDependiente red | Near-zero — internal hydrogen powers facilityCasi-cero — hidrógeno interno | Near-zero external drawCasi-cero externo |
Hydrogen note:Nota hidrógeno: ACM-produced hydrogen is consumed internally. Never sold externally, never offtake, never revenue line.Hidrógeno producido por ACM se consume internamente. Nunca vendido, nunca offtake, nunca línea de ingresos.
§5.3 — PFAS Structural Delta§5.3 — Delta Estructural PFAS
State A: long-chain fluorinated compounds (PFAS) in MSW accumulate in landfill leachate and may migrate to groundwater. Puerto Rico's karst aquifer creates elevated transport pathways.
State B: ACM's anoxic, sub-atmospheric, oxygen-free process destroys long-chain fluorinated compounds. PFAS handling protocols built into facility design; do not constitute future regulatory cost.
Estado A: compuestos PFAS en RSM acumulan en lixiviados y migran a aguas. El acuífero kárstico de PR crea rutas de transporte elevadas.
Estado B: el proceso anóxico, sub-atmosférico, libre de oxígeno de ACM destruye compuestos fluorados. Protocolos integrados; sin costo regulatorio futuro.
§5.4 — No-Fallback Analysis§5.4 — Análisis Sin Alternativa
The alternative to a contracted ACM solution is a constrained set: (1) revival of the Arecibo WTE incineration proposal (DRNA Feb 2026 reconsideration) facing sustained community opposition; (2) continued expansion of remaining compliant landfill capacity, limited by land scarcity, karst aquifer constraints, and EPA enforcement; (3) federal emergency mass-diversion to mainland U.S. under FEMA/EPA mutual aid — Jones Act shipping costs substantially exceeding $200/ton. State B offers the only contracted, non-combustion, circular pathway.
La alternativa a una solución ACM contratada es un conjunto restringido: (1) revival de incineración Arecibo WTE, con oposición comunitaria sostenida; (2) expansión continua de capacidad conforme, limitada por escasez de terreno y aplicación EPA; (3) desvío federal de emergencia — costos Jones Act superiores a $200/ton. El Estado B ofrece la única ruta contratada, no-combustión, circular.
§6 — Risk and Sensitivity§6 — Riesgo y Sensibilidad
§6.1 — Structured Risk Register§6.1 — Registro de Riesgos
| # | RiskRiesgo | DriverImpulsor | MitigationMitigación |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FWDC verificationverificación | $145/ton ESTIMATED | 90-day data exchange; floor/ceiling bracketIntercambio 90 días; rango |
| 2 | Commonwealth credit positionPosición crediticia ELA | S&P D; PROMESA | Five-layer credit architectureArquitectura 5 capas |
| 3 | Technology performanceDesempeño tecnológico | Throughput shortfallDéficit rendimiento | SPV performance guarantee; phased exposureGarantía SPV; exposición por fases |
| 4 | Timeline slippageAtraso cronograma | Permitting · hurricane · supply chainPermisos · huracán · cadena | 90-day contingency per phaseContingencia 90 días |
| 5 | Third-party contract constraintsRestricciones terceros | Existing contractsContratos existentes | Phase Initial from immediate streamsFase Inicial flujos inmediatos |
| 6 | Competitive procurement (Arecibo WTE)Adquisición competitiva | DRNA Feb 2026 | Non-combustion category differentiationDiferenciación categoría |
| 7 | PFAS | Potential federal listingPosible listado federal | Anoxic process destroys PFASProceso anóxico destruye |
| 8 | Hurricane / disasterHuracán | Structural exposureExposición estructural | Hurricane-rated; insurance; surge capacityResistente; seguro; oleada |
| 9 | Act 60 decree issuanceDecreto Ley 60 | OITE delaysAtrasos OITE | Concurrent filing; 6–12 monthsPresentación concurrente |
| 10 | RPT | Reclassification under solid waste NAICSReclasificación residuos | §1.0 termination clause; CSA commitmentCláusula §1.0; compromiso CSA |
§6.2 — Feedstock Variability (±20%)§6.2 — Variabilidad (±20%)
| ScenarioEscenario | Vol | TMC Y5 | RoyaltyRegalía |
|---|---|---|---|
| −20% | 584,000 | $77.36M | $92.83M |
| Base | 730,000 | $96.70M | $116.03M |
| +20% | 876,000 | $116.04M | $139.24M |
Feedstock variability does not change sign of delta — engagement is structurally robust.Variabilidad no cambia signo del delta — estructuralmente robusto.
§6.3 — FWDC Sensitivity§6.3 — Sensibilidad FWDC
Year 1 gross displacement flips negative if FWDC falls below $120/ton. Given PR's rising trajectory, this is inconsistent with the forward curve documented in the Waste Study.Desplazamiento Y1 cambia a negativo si FWDC cae bajo $120/ton. Dada la trayectoria ascendente de PR, esto es inconsistente con la curva futura.
The steady-state position is structurally robust to all realistic scenarios.Para que Y2+ sea negativa, FWDC bajo −$21/ton — no físicamente significativo. Posición estable estructuralmente robusta.
§6.4 — Royalty Escalator Sensitivity§6.4 — Sensibilidad Escalador
| ScenarioEscenario | Y30 Rate | Y30 $/t |
|---|---|---|
| 0 pp | 120% | $287.50 |
| +1 pp (current)(actual) | 148% | $354.58 |
| +2 pp | 176% | $421.66 |
§6.5 — Timeline Slippage Sensitivity§6.5 — Atraso Cronograma
| T0 SlippageAtraso | Phase Initial COD | MarginMargen | CostCosto |
|---|---|---|---|
| On-time (Q3 2026)A tiempo | Q1 2029 | +~12 months aheadmeses antes | |
| +6 monthsmeses | Q3 2029 | +~6 monthsmeses | Compounded escalationEscalación compuesta |
| +12 monthsmeses | Q1 2030 | At capacity wallEn muro | Forced WTE revival or federal diversionWTE forzado o desvío federal |
| +24 monthsmeses | Q1 2031 | Inside capacity wallDentro muro | Non-contracted emergencyEmergencia no contratada |
§7 — Decision Window Analysis§7 — Ventana de Decisión
§7.1 — Binding Constraints§7.1 — Restricciones
- EPA Consent Order closure clustering — 12 landfill closures 2025–2028Agrupación cierres EPA — 12 cierres 2025–2028
- FEMA/EPA capacity exhaustion — 2028–2030 windowAgotamiento FEMA/EPA — ventana 2028–2030
- CDBG-MIT closure fund deployment — $55.7M allocated; must deploy within statutory windowsFondos CDBG-MIT — $55.7M asignados
- Arecibo WTE revival visibility — DRNA February 2026 public reconsiderationVisibilidad WTE Arecibo — reconsideración DRNA feb 2026
§7.2 — Decision Window Table§7.2 — Tabla Ventana
| EventEvento | WindowVentana |
|---|---|
| Procurement decision deadline (T0)Fecha límite adquisición | Q3 2026 |
| Term Sheet phase verification completeEstudio completo | Q4 2026 |
| OITE Act 60 Decree filedpresentado | Q4 2026 |
| Construction startInicio construcción | Q1 2027 |
| Phase Initial CODCOD Fase Inicial | Q1 2029 |
| First Circular Royalty™Primera Regalía | Q2 2030 |
| Phase Expanded full opsOps Fase Expandida | Q3 2031 |
| Capacity wall midpointPunto medio muro | 2029 |
Finding: Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) drives irreversibility.
Once the Commonwealth executes the CSA with manufacturing NAICS classification (325180, 325998, 327992, 331110, 331314, 331492) and OITE issues the Act 60 Chapter 6 Manufacturing Decree on that basis, the facility is legally classified as manufacturing for all regulatory, permitting, and tax purposes. The CSA, the Act 60 Decree, and the FTZ #163 designation operate as mutually-reinforcing legal instruments. Solid waste codes (562213 / 562219) are expressly excluded; both parties commit to the RPT pathway, and the Act 60 Decree rests on that same manufacturing predicate — a legally coherent result because all three regimes depend on the same NAICS foundation.
The Commonwealth's procurement decision is not a simple commercial choice; it is a classification decision with 30-year legal consequences spanning three regulatory regimes.
Hallazgo: La Transición del Predicado Regulatorio (RPT) impulsa la irreversibilidad.
Una vez ejecutado el CSA con clasificación NAICS manufacturera y emitido el Decreto Cap. 6 Ley 60 sobre esa base, la instalación está legalmente clasificada como manufactura para todos los propósitos. El CSA, el Decreto, y la designación FTZ #163 operan como instrumentos mutuamente reforzantes. La reclasificación posterior bajo NAICS residuos terminaría el CSA sin penalidad bajo §1.0 y revocaría simultáneamente el Decreto.
La decisión de adquisición del ELA es una decisión de clasificación con consecuencias legales de 30 años.
§7.4 — Optionality Matrix§7.4 — Matriz Opcionalidad
| Decision PathRuta | OptionalityOpcionalidad | Time MarginMargen | CapexCapex | ResultResultado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Execute CSA Q3 2026Ejecutar CSA | Yes | Yes | $0 | ManagedGestionado |
| Delay 6 monthsRetrasar 6m | NarrowingEstrechándose | NarrowingEstrechándose | $0 | TightApretado |
| Revive WTERevivir WTE | LimitedLimitado | Narrow | Likely requiredRequerido | UncertainIncierto |
| Do nothingNo hacer nada | No | None | EmergencyEmergencia | CrisisCrisis |
§8 — Effects Summary§8 — Resumen Efectos Netos
No new figures. All values trace to preceding sections.Sin nuevas cifras. Todos los valores derivan de secciones previas.
§8.1 — Fiscal Effects Table§8.1 — Efectos Fiscales
| PeriodPeríodo | Avoided DisposalDispos. Evitada | TMC | RoyaltyRegalía | Annual ExpandedAnual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 (pre-royalty)Y1 pre-regalía | +$25 | −$120 | $0 | +$3.65M (Initial) |
| Y2+ (post-ramp)Y2+ post-rampa | +$26 | −$123 | +$144 | +$24.76M (Initial) |
| Y5+ (steady)Y5+ estable | +$28 | −$132 | +$159 | +$136.17M |
| Y30 (terminal)Y30 terminal | +$51 | −$246 | +$355 | +$296.22M |
§8.2 — Regional Economic Effects§8.2 — Efectos Regionales
Required disclaimer: these figures represent regional GDP / employment effects and do not transfer to Commonwealth treasury. They are distinct from Fiscal Effects in §8.1.Descargo: efectos regionales no se transfieren a tesorería ELA.
- Direct employment at Phase Expanded: 145 FTEEmpleo directo: 145 FTE
- Indirect employment: ~360Empleo indirecto: ~360
- Total jobs: ~505Empleos totales: ~505
- Annual regional economic impact: ~$65M at full buildImpacto regional anual: ~$65M
- Primary concentration: Ponce municipio and south-coast industrial corridorConcentración: Ponce y corredor costa sur
§8.3 — Environmental Effects§8.3 — Efectos Ambientales
Required disclaimer: designed-performance targets; actual outcomes subject to commissioning verification.Descargo: metas de desempeño diseñado; resultados sujetos a verificación.
- Designed to avoid ~2.4M TCO2e/yr at Phase Expanded full buildDiseñado para evitar ~2.4M TCO2e/año
- Designed water recovery: ~480,000 GPD condensate reuseRecuperación agua: ~480,000 GPD
- Designed to operate with near-zero external energy draw (internal hydrogen power)Casi-cero demanda externa (hidrógeno interno)
- 20% diversion of territorial MSW from landfill20% desviación RSM
§8.4 — Structural Effects§8.4 — Efectos Estructurales
- 30-year contracted feedstock solution at $1.17B private capex ($0 territorial)Solución 30 años, $1.17B privado ($0 territorial)
- Act 60 Chapter 6 anchors manufacturing-classified industrial base in PRCap. 6 Ley 60 ancla base manufacturera
- CDBG-DR / HUD §108 / EPA SRF federal flows backstop project creditFlujos federales respaldan crédito proyecto
- PFAS, methane, and leachate burdens structurally reduced for diverted volumePFAS, metano, lixiviados reducidos
- Optionality preserved for residual 80% through future phases or parallel procurementOpcionalidad preservada para 80% residual
§8.5 — Unresolved Data Gaps§8.5 — Brechas de Datos No Resueltas
- FWDC planning basis is ESTIMATED at $145/ton; re-calibration through Territory data exchange in the 90-day post-commercial-decision windowBase FWDC ESTIMADA en $145/ton; recalibración en ventana 90 días
- Site candidate at Ponce Industrial Corridor (FTZ #163) is provisional pending PRIDCO parcel confirmation and DDEC / DRNA / Municipality of Ponce concurrenceSitio Ponce (FTZ #163) provisional pendiente PRIDCO y concurrencia DDEC / DRNA / Ponce
- Current DRNA, DDEC, and PRIFA principal names subject to administration verification at CSA executionNombres principales sujetos a verificación
- Composition data draws from historical and academic sources; post-waste-characterization-study refinement expectedDatos composición de fuentes históricas/académicas; refinamiento esperado
These gaps are structurally bounded and do not block commercial decision at Q3 2026.Brechas estructuralmente limitadas; no bloquean decisión Q3 2026.
Appendix A — Sources and MethodologyApéndice A — Fuentes y Metodología
SourcesFuentes
- US Census Bureau, Puerto Rico Population Estimates (2024)
- DRNA consolidated recordsregistros consolidados · ASCE 2019 Infrastructure Report Card · EPA Region 2
- FWDC build-up synthesized from DRNA, ASCE, and industry operator filings with capacity-crisis forward curve premiumdesarrollo sintetizado de DRNA, ASCE, archivos operadores con prima curva crisis
- Act 60-2019 Incentives Code — DDEC / OITE · PwC Tax Summaries (March 2026)
- S&P Global Ratings · Moody's withdrawal noticeaviso retirada (July 2021) · PROMESA Title III proceedingsprocedimientos
- EPA Consent Orders — US EPA Region 2 · DOJ Consent Decrees · Waste360 / Waste Dive / El Nuevo Día
- FEMA/EPA Puerto Rico Landfill Capacity Assessment
- CDBG-MIT Solid Waste Management Initiative — Puerto Rico Department of Housing (2025)
- UN Framework Classification for Resources — UNECE Anthropogenic Resources Category
Methodology NotesNotas Metodológicas
- FWDC derivation: component-based build-up (collection, transport, compliant tipping forward curve, closure, post-closure, overhead, capacity-crisis premium).Derivación FWDC: desarrollo por componentes.
- Beneficiation Fee formula: standard Carbotura parameters with $20/ton PR-specific pass-through reduction reflecting Act 60 + FTZ + QOZ incentive stack.Fórmula TMC: parámetros estándar con reducción $20/ton específica PR.
- Phase sizing: Carbotura standard 100-TPD-module architecture.Dimensionamiento: arquitectura módulos 100 TPD estándar.
- Royalty formula: Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Royalty_Rate(m); base 120%, +1pp/yr, 13-month lag, 30-year rolling.Fórmula Regalía: Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Rate(m); base 120%, +1pp/año, lag 13 meses.
- Environmental performance basis: designed-performance targets per ACM specifications.Base desempeño ambiental: metas diseñadas.
- Employment basis: Carbotura per-100-TPD staffing; 2.5× indirect multiplier.Empleo: personal por 100 TPD; multiplicador 2.5×.
- Timeline basis: Carbotura standard deployment; 24-month construction; 90-day per-phase contingency.Cronograma: despliegue estándar; 24 meses construcción; contingencia 90 días.
Appendix B — Glossary AdditionsApéndice B — Adiciones Glosario
Delta ModelComparative framework quantifying the difference between two defined states, rather than independently re-deriving either.Marco comparativo cuantificando diferencia entre dos estados, sin re-derivación independiente.
GASBGovernmental Accounting Standards Board. US public-sector standard. Commonwealth reports under GASB for territorial accounts and US GAAP for the Carbotura SPV under US territory designation.Junta de Estándares Contables Gubernamentales. El ELA reporta bajo GASB para cuentas territoriales y US GAAP para el SPV.
Gross Cost DisplacementFWDC avoided per ton diverted to ACM. Quantified separately from Circular Royalty™.FWDC evitado por ton desviada. Cuantificado separadamente de Regalía.
Gross Cost Displacement + Circular Royalty™ − Beneficiation Fee Paid. Revenue-positive from Year 2.Desplazamiento Bruto + Regalía − TMC. Positiva desde Y2.
No-Fallback StatusCondition where territorial waste management has no engineered alternative. Puerto Rico's State A baseline reflects this.Condición sin alternativa ingenieril. Estado A de PR refleja esto.
Pre-Royalty PeriodMonths 1–12 of Phase Initial operation. TMC paid; no offsetting royalty. Only gross cost displacement active.Meses 1–12. TMC pagado; sin regalía compensatoria. Solo desplazamiento bruto activo.
Royalty Ramp PeriodMonths 13–24. Circular Royalty™ builds from first payment to full run-rate on a rolling monthly basis.Meses 13–24. Regalía crece a tasa completa mensualmente.
State A / State BState A is the baseline system without Carbotura. State B is the system modified by the 30-year CSA. EIR quantifies the delta.Estado A: base sin Carbotura. Estado B: con CSA de 30 años. EIR cuantifica delta.
Steady-State PeriodYear 3 onward. Circular Royalty™ exceeds TMC per-ton by design.Y3+. Regalía excede TMC por ton por diseño.